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To interact with the data and see source citations, access the Excel file of Key Backlog data linked to my EB-5 Timing page. If, as USCIS claims, "We generally process cases in the order we receive them, " then we'd see a fairly tight date distribution in I-526 actions. For detailed analysis, see EB5 Sir's recent posts. Points I note from the unofficial data. The barrier is that the firm answers that people want aren't possible. Members of the diaspora who are not firmly settled in third countries are facing a real risk of detention and refoulement. And if you followed that logic, then the only numbers that ultimately remained unused after the fall-up provision would then fall across for the next year's set-aside limit. Trackitt (recommend this as user base is very knowledgeable, we are not affiliated with them). Another point worth amplifying. See the base of the post for additional charts illustrating I-485 trends. Quoted from minute 32] Oppenheim: I do believe that the State Department will have to have new visa categories, and issuance codes or issuance symbols need to be established to identify the applicants who are going to be eligible for processing under the 10, 20, and 2 percent set aside limits. Former Coinbase product manager pleads guilty to criminal charges in landmark case. Mandamus litigation for I-829 has succeeded in some cases. You can join below Telegram groups or forums if you need any more help. For more background, see this EB5 Investors Magazine article and this article byBehring Regional Center.
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For example, if USCIS truly holds the untenable standard that that each investor's eligibility is contingent on the lawful source of funds for each other investor in the NCE, then the Form I-526 should reflect that standard, and request lawful source of funds documentation for NCE investors other than the petitioner. Doing this equation quarter by quarter (as I do in a table below), shows discrepancies every quarter. Maybe USCIS would truly like to design a page that's useful to applicants wanting to understand processing times, not only useful to USCIS for the purposes of obscuring processing trends and blocking case inquiries. Case remains pending telegram group plc. In 2022, this theory held true for Vietnam but not for India. An investment will be an investment, not an unpredictable series of deployments. The guess was also justifiable as an estimate through about 2018, but now quite unmoored from observable processing factors.
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This estimate includes applications on file at the National Visa Center and estimated applicants associated with I-526 petitions pending at USCIS. Data shows that employment-based I-485 completions increased across the board in FY2021 — except sadly not at the California Service Center, and not for EB-5 status adjustments. The Justice Department indicted Ishan Wahi in July, alongside his brother and friend, in connection with an insider trading scheme to front-run listings of new tokens on Coinbase. Case remains pending telegram group.com. The fastest recent I-829 approvals I've heard of were for petitions filed in September 2020 and approved just five months later. On December 23, USCIS slipped a new sentence onto the USCIS website: "Dec. 29, 2022, is no longer the deadline to file Form I-956, Application for Regional Center Designation, amendments, as required by the Behring Settlement, and Form I-956G, Regional Center Annual Statement. Instead of re-allocating resources to direct EB-5 and I-829, IPO appears to have merely let resources go.
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USCIS does not normally report withdrawals, but for public policy reasons we need to know how many people are choosing to exit the program, even after having made investments. While everyone buzzes about when I-526E can be filed with USCIS (a key point in the proposed Settlement Agreement for the Behring litigation), I consider another critical issue: when I-526/I-526E can be reviewed and approved by USCIS. While the USCIS report simply uses the word "denied" in the column heading, the 4-point font notes at the base of the report clarifies that "Denied are the number of applications or petitions that were denied, terminated, withdrawn, or revoked during the reporting period. " Here is a copy of an email I received yesterday from USCIS, inviting people who have filed a form with USCIS in the past 12 months (or their advocates) to apply for participation in a focus group. The government had the entire year to issue direct EB-5 visas, but only issued 621, likely constrained by low demand (i. e. few direct I-526 filed and even fewer making it through I-526 processing to the visa stage). As I look at these numbers, here's what strikes me as significant. Many stakeholder questions about ambiguities were met with the response "USCIS may consider rulemaking to address these issues. Telegram group owner left. USCIS and industry are not sure how to handle the regional center application, amendment, and reporting forms because we lack clarity or agreement on basic questions about regional center identity and responsibilities. At last report (in November 2020, the last time IPO deigned to have a stakeholder engagement of any kind), the Investor Program Office at USCIS had a staff of 232 people.
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So USCIS must have miscounted approvals/denials or pending in Q1, or possibly compensating for errors in previous quarters. USCIS has not yet decided whether it will take the position that RIA requirements, such as fund administrators and audits, apply to pre-RIA projects. More I-526 were filed in the last week in June 2021 than in the entire previous year and half. As things stand, the United States has raised and benefited from about 15 billion dollars in EB-5 investment over and above what it can justify based on current EB-5 visa number limits. There are questions about the status of previously-approved regional centers and their investors, ongoing processing issues, and the prospect of new legislation to change everyone's visa wait times. I continue to update my Processing Data page with intel as I receive it on I-526 and I-829 processing. Reserved visas can only have an incentive function if they can offer a priority/timing advantage to new investors, which is only possible if the visas are not absorbed by the many people already in the backlog waiting for visas. EB2-1 485 case remains pending?? | Lawfully. As illustrated in the charts, the Investor Program Office is far from implementing a first-come-first-served process. The I-526 denial number looks high, but many of these are actually withdrawals (which get coded with denials for summary reports). EB-5 just doesn't have a big market in most of the world. We will use this feedback to inform future policy changes and operational improvements. So far, the official USCIS Immigration and Citizenship Data page reinforces what my leak says: that productivity at the Investor Program office has still not improved under the Biden administration, and in fact has gotten worse for I-829 as well as I-526 through June 2021 — according to the FY2021 Q3 update. The opinions often cited the concern that siding with the plaintiffs would send a signal that litigious applicants for the program can jump to the front of the line. " And finally, in case publicity helps to shame IPO into action, here is a day-by-day accounting of actions completed by I-526 adjudicators in December 2021 so far, according to my fly-on-the-wall source.
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1% of EB allocation for the first time. 2, 000 rural visas per year can sustainably accommodate around 700 investors per year, and will cease to offer a fast track when demand exceeds that level and creates new backlogs. Petitioners have fought to become exceptions to the dreadful processing average by means of expedite requests and Mandamus litigation. "Checklist of Contents for Regional Center Compliance Policies and Procedures Manual Under the EB-5 Reform & Integrity Act" by the EB-5 Securities Roundtable. For example, Section 203(b)(1) indicates already that any unused employment fourth or fifth preference numbers should be added to the EB-1 annual limit. Sarah Kendall left IPO after November 2020 according to her LinkedIn page, so FY2021 Q1 represents the end of her direct influence. Also, let's all remind USCIS that the public list of questions and required evidence on the Form I-526 should match the private list of questions and required evidence given to USCIS adjudicators. This could be a back door to recapturing at least FY2022's large number of unused EB-5 visas, which would be very valuable. I start with a focus on I-526 approvals, since that's what drives the EB-5 process. Case remains Pending | Lawfully. I thinkthis interpretation can and ought to be challenged, at at least one lawsuit by DRVC is challenging it, but it's the fact for now. The guilty plea may moot a legal argument in separate civil charges brought by the Securities and Exchange Commission as to whether the nine tokens in question are securities. If that report is accurate, how few people must have been assigned to I-526 in July 2021, to result in an average of only 2 decisions and 6 total actions per working day? 1% of total employment-based visas, or about 10, 000 visas per year.
The December 2021 Visa Bulletin has a "Current" Final Action Date and Filing Date for China in the 5th Non-Regional Center preference category (C5 and T5). Just 188 I-526/I-526E were filed in July to September 2022. As a side note, see minute 36 of the Chat with Charlie linked above for a brief comment in response to my question about why, despite "current" Chart B for I5 and R5, NVC has been emailing regional center applicants that it "will not act on any new or pending EB-5 visa petitions as described above until further notice. How far does that put us from expecting two-year I-526 processing times? On the bright side, I'm glad that USCIS acknowledged a need to "clarify the requirements, " and did not stick to an unreasonable deadline. Time to see that vision work its way down to IPO. In theory, I-829 filings to remove conditions should be fairly steady, reflecting the steady pace of EB-5 visa issuance two years previously. I have no idea why I-829, after having shown an improvement trend in 2020, actually got worse again in 2021, even after the regional center program lapse made more resources available to work on I-829. Short report: fantastic performance for I-485 at the California Service Center in Q4 (thanks to USCIS leadership for prioritizing EB visa issuance and to Congress for applying political pressure that proved effective! This article has five parts: Analogy: To set the stage, I suggest the analogy of an airport (like EB-5, a multi-stage process), and passengers waiting on standby (analogous to oversubscribed EB-5 applicants waiting on unused visas). EB-5 integrity would get such a boost if we could expect that every I-526 would get USCIS attention in months, not years! See slide 10 of "Part 1: A discussion with Charles Oppenheim" (November 19, 2020) 2020 IIUSA Virtual Forum [v] Charles Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control & Reporting Division at the U. The details reported in this post are a fraction of what we'd like and need to know about what's going on behind the scenes at IPO. Today marks the end of Fiscal Year 2022, and the first September since 2015 that I haven't spent reporting on Congressional news and the appropriations process, waiting with bated breath for updates about regional center program authorization.
I-526 and I-829 processing productivity fell in FY2021, even below previous low levels. A webinar recording is now available on Youtube, and I've transcribed below a few of Charlie's comments on the reserved visas provision in the new law. For those who prefer to interact with charts in Excel, here you go. I do not usually report I-485 data because USCIS does not itemize EB-5-based I-485. If not supply relief, will be demand failure. " No one thinks that eight years is an acceptable processing target. © 2023 The Block Crypto, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The two-year-old data was useless by the time it was finally delivered to me. In July to September 2022, over half of I-526 adjudications were denials. In contradistinction to some "golden visa" programs around the world, the U. EB-5 program is not a "cash for passports" arrangement. I will continue to track this number with interest and concern. China estimates will only get worse if EB-5 gets more popular than it's ever been before in small countries. Generally, USCIS boasted of its efforts in FY2021 to ramp up I-485 processing volume to help compensate for consular closures and prevent visa loss.
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